Today, Apple announced its new iPhone5. While I was reading this article from Mashable and the comments mostly from angry Android users, it reminded me of how this debate is so similar to what democrats and republicans have about their candidates Obama and Romney. So let us use that analogy and see if Apple will be winner with its iPhone5.
Independent voters/users will decide fate of AAPL
Like the presidential politics it is clear that democrats are voting for Obama just as existing iPhone users are going to buy iPhone5. Similarly republicans are going to vote for Romney just as existing Android users who are continuing to buy their Android phones whether from Google, HTC or Samsung. Just as this election is going to be decided by independents so will the selection of the phones be made by independents (neither an Apple fanboy nor an Android fanboy). According to JP Morgan study, success of iPhone5 may have a positive impact on the US GDP.
How will independents vote? To buy iPhone5 or Not!
There are three categories of independents who may make their decision differently
- People taking their first plunge to smartphones
- People taking their first plunge to touch based smartphones
- People unhappy with their existing phones
People taking their first plunge to smartphones
This may be the largest segment for success of Apple or Samsung. Many of these users are likely to be price sensitive and so Android may win here or the older iPhones (iPhone4S, iPhone4) may win some percentage of these users. Also since many of these users are looking for pre paid plans, Android is likely to win here too. However, Samsung may not be the winner here as there are many more cheaper Android smartphones available from other manufacturers. This segment is generally ignored by Apple.
People taking their first plunge to touch based smartphones
This segment is mainly the remaining Blackberry users who have finally decided to move to a touch based smartphone. In this case the likely winner will be Apple since iPhone is approved by many more companies and is relatively easier to use compared to Android smartphones
People unhappy with their existing smartphones
This segment is probably biased more towards iPhone users since Apple does keep its users more happy whether through its stores or other Apple fanboys. If Apple succeeds in creating more hype as iPhone5 launch approaches this segment will shift more in its favor.
Will iPhone5 be a victory for AAPL
Granted that iPhone5 launch was nothing spectacular but Apple will succeed due to support from its
- Existing iPhone users
- Users migrating from Blackberry
- Unhappy Android users