Clear Winners

Motorola is a winner since it got an excessive premium over its current share price. Microsoft is a winner since all of Android licenses now want to at least invest some portion of their resources on Microsoft’s Windows Phone and its latest Mango version of Windows Phone is making progress in the market. PC Mag’s article has done a good job in explaining this.

But how will Nokia, RIM and Apple  fare from Googorola?

Clear Losers

Google’s Android, which has been gaining in popularity, may see some defensive moves from its OEMs such as HTC, Samsung and LG who feel threatened by Google- Motorola phone despite Google’s assurance to the contrary. Google is a loser since it has overpaid for a patent portfolio that may not have the same level of relevance today as when these patents were developed. To quote Dan Ravicher, the executive director of the Public Patent Foundation from this Huffington Post article” There’s a patent bubble — a lot of speculation and bidding up. This reminds me of the housing bubble, the dot-com bubble. Five years from now, people will realize that they have overbid.”

What about Apple, Nokia, RIM and others?

Is Apple a loser in this? If OEM’s jump the Android boat, Apple will see less competition from Android. In that case, Google will put its energy in Motorola phone and in creating an end-to-end experience like Apple which may be more of a threat to Apple in the long term.

Is it a win for RIM, the makers of Blackberry phones? RIM has been losing market share and this may accelerate it. However, it also has a rich set of patents which will now be overvalued like that of Motorola’s thereby helping increase the valuation of the company if someone were to acquire it.

Is it a win for Nokia? Nokia had a choice of betting on either Android or Windows Phone and it chose the later and now must be happy with its decision. If Google indeed becomes an end-to-end supplier that will put Nokia at a disadvantage. Like RIM, it also has a very rich patent portfolio that may be overvalued if Microsoft were to pull the trigger on buying Nokia.

This may reduce the choice for both the consumer and mobile operators and when that happens prices go up and innovation suffers. So no matter which company wins, the consumer loses.

Conclusion

With this deal of Google buying Motorola, Microsoft and Motorola seem to be clear winners while Google and most of Android OEMs seem to be clear losers. Apple may benefit or lose depending on how Google handles this acquisition. RIM and Nokia may benefit or lose depending on what Microsoft may decide to do. This may also affect consumer and mobile operator choices when it comes to smartphones.

This blog post discusses the following:

• Changing landscape of marketing research
• Current approach
• Technology requirements
• How does SocialNuggets work?
• Summary

Changing landscape of market research

In the fast moving markets like smartphones, tablets, apparel and entertainment, traditional market research techniques like surveys and focus groups are just too slow and can’t be relied upon exclusively to make effective business decisions.  Today, most consumers express their opinions voluntarily on various forums, blogs, review sites and social networking sites. This data, if mined correctly, is a goldmine of consumer sentiments and opinions and can serve as a source of real time market intelligence and that  has been a missing piece in the market research area despite many advances in technology.

Current Approach

There are many enterprise software packages available that can be customized with lots of efforts and resources to get the right answers for a particular industry/company. Needless to say, this is expensive, time consuming, generally offered as an enterprise software behind firewall and not affordable even for many large companies.

Technology Requirements

In order to analyze this vast amount of Internet data we call social data, one needs the following tools and technologies

• Focused Harvesting
• Text Analytics
• Natural Language Processing
• Sentiment Analysis

As an example, we analyze over 1M conversations quarterly on the web related to smartphones, get rid of spam using our technology and then extract sentiments by

• Features (like long battery life is positive while long charging time is negative)
• Phone models (like HTC EVO, Apple iPhone 4)
• Brands (like HTC, RIM, Samsung, Sony Ericsson)
• Category (Android, Blackberry, iPhone, Windows Phone)

Our technology, developed over 20 man-years of effort, has been used by many companies for marketing research, customer service, lead generation and brand management.

How does SocialNuggets work?

In order to make our technology accessible to companies of all sizes with least amount of upfront investment, we have started SocialNuggets.net that provides detailed research from social media in various forms as following:

Individual nuggets that anyone can consume by embedding inside of their websites or forwarding to their friends and colleagues – this is free so long as you maintain attribution to SocialNuggets and/or Our partners

Monthly and Quarterly SocialNuggets Index for various markets which can also be used to make purchasing decisions

Data behind individual nuggets that can be purchased for internal analysis

Full data warehouse for internal analysis by companies’ internal business analytics package

Reports and Customized research reports created by our staff/our partners

Summary

We have started this site with research on smartphones and are adding new nuggets daily for anyone in this industry to consume, enjoy, share and engage in making fast but smarter business decisions.

So this blog has three sections

• SocialNuggets Forecast Vs Academy’s Decision
• Commentary on the results
• How was our research done

SocialNuggets Forecast Vs Academy’s Decision

Commentary on the results

It is clear that Academy doesn’t always pick the most popular public opinion as expressed in social media. Our record of prediction was about 50%. So, can you really use the social media conversations to predict the winners? The popular opinion does coincide with the commercial success of the movie. Perhaps, someday Academy’s opinions will align with the general public but until that time we will continue to learn from this experience and modify our algorithms and will be back next year with more.

How was our research done

Using SocialNuggets’ technology of focused harvesting and text analytics and sentiment engine, we started mining social media conversations for the last few days not just for mentions but also for sentiments. We settled on only 9 award categories as there were not enough meaningful conversations to predict in other categories until 2 days ago. Using our engine, we came up with net perception score of each of the mentions and then multiplied the  % of mentions with Serendio Net perception score to get a final score which was published in our slide share discussions.

At TiE, our mission is to foster entrepreneurship; through our collective thinking we decided that Innovation would be the most fitting theme for our annual conference, TiEcon. We tip our hats off to the head of state for recognizing the importance of Innovation since it’s very much in line with our mission here at TiE. But at TiE, we make a mission out of Innovation in showing innovators a path forward — a path forward to innovate , a path forward to create something big and meaningful for this world whether within their companies, or to go out and create the next Google or Facebook.

Whether you are an Intrapreneur or an Entrepreneur, you need tools to channel your Innovation. So what are the tools needed for channeling innovation? Equally important, we believe them to be the following:

• Mentoring
• Networking
• Education
• Funding
• Celebrate

Mentoring

There are many who have tread this path before and so knowing some of the  roadblocks and how to clear them may save you months. Yes you need mentors who have done it before and that is what TiE provides. This year’s TiEcon will enable informal and formal mentoring 1-on-1 sessions with experienced and successful entrepreneurs we call TiE Charter Members

Networking

One reason to go to any conference or trade show is to network with your peers and competitors alike. TiE has one single-minded focus on fostering entrepreneurship, whether inside or outside your companies. Therefore, this year’s TiEcon is expanding its formal networking opportunities by allocating more time between sessions and expanding its coverage to include TiE Innovation Expo wherein you can network with your peers, your customers and partners.  TiEcon will offer you opportunities whether you need a co-founder or just some early team members.

Education

Knowing how the system works is half the battle, and that is why TiEcon focuses on both basic and advanced skill workshops and panel sessions. This year we will focus on the 5 hottest technology trends of Cloud, Energy, Mobile, Physical Science and Social while enhancing our offering of basic how to sessions for entrepreneurs. We will have many inspiring speakers to keep your batteries charged.

Funding

Every successful innovation needs money to complete development and productize or to market and sell it to the general market.  At this year’s TiEcon, you will learn how to do fundraising and you will meet with many investors from seed to venture capitalists to late stage fund managers.

Celebrate

It is more important to celebrate small victories than to brood on setbacks.  This year’s TiEcon will end with a celebration of success in the form of a giant banquet and entertainment for entrepreneurs.

Conclusion

If you are an entrepreneur or want to be one, you can’t afford to miss TiEcon this year on May 13th and 14th at Santa Clara Convention Center.

Mobile Computing, Social Networking and Cloud Computing have been driving tech industry for 2010 and will likely continue to be the driver for this year. What differences, if any, will be felt in evolution of these trends this year. Here are some of my opinions and I sure would like to hear yours on these topics. Part-I of this blog dealt with Mobile issues while Part-II deals with Social Networking issues while Part-III will deal with Cloud Computing.

Social Networking Trends

The three big trends in social networking are:

• Social Everything
• Revenue models of social networking companies
• Social media analytics

Social Everything

First it was about social networking and then it was about social gaming and now it is about social everything including social CRM, social media, social politics and social shopping. Social concepts will become part of every application whether consumer facing or enterprise focused. Will it even be a stand-alone market longer term or just become part of every application? What new social trends will emerge next?

Revenue models

Facebook will go public and after initial euphoria, its valuation will become realistic. Facebook revenue model will continue to butt heads with governments and users’ privacy issues as Facebook becomes the darling of media agencies to precisely target everyone of us. Twitter will finally invent a new business model realizing that its value is in being a hub rather than a content site. Will Groupon become the fastest $1B revenue company in 2011?

Social media engagement and analytics

Every company that didn’t get on the bandwagon of social media will have no choice but to join the party and hopefully learn beyond passive Facebook fans and likes. Companies will learn to build communities and relationships with their users on social networks. Traditional market research will find a friend or foe in social media data as it will move from passive monitoring to detailed analytics. Social media analytics will likely help in predicting various product and services future in a real time fashion. What is your organization doing with social media data?

Conclusion

Unlike the past, Tech industry trends now start in consumer markets. Social media and its use is moving from consumer market into enterprise market and companies will have no choice but to embrace, adopt and analyze social media.

Mobile Computing Trends

The three big trends in Mobile Computing are:

• Android and Mobile Phones
• Tablets and iPad
• Apps Apps

Android and Mobile Phones

Android was the big news of 2010 and will continue its march into mobile dominance. However, as Android moves more into the mainstream, battery life, fragmentation, usability and app store issues will come in its way of total domination. Apple will innovate again this time improving speech interface and competing with Google on replacing our remotes, wallets and keys with mobile phone. In the mobile industry, the dominance for No.3 spot will be fought hard between Microsoft, Nokia and RIM. Who do you think will be the winner in the end?

Tablets and iPad

Tablet was the big news of 2010 but competition to iPad only arrives this year. Android may take the second spot and battle for third spot will be fought between HP’s Palmtop, RIM’s Playbook and a player we don’t know about yet? Having used iPad for the last few months, I think Tablets have the potential to replace laptops for many users. What are your experiences?

Apps Apps

Apps was the big news of 2010 with limited monetization but new business models will emerge making monetization easier. HTML5 will become viable for many content applications and start to become the trend of 2011. In fact, that is the only way Microsoft, Nokia and RIM can neutralize some of the momentum of Android and iOS applications. You can see over 70 conversations on Linkedin at http://linkd.in/h7hhr5 about this topic

Conclusion

Google’s Android and Apple’s iOS will continue its dominance for mobile phone and tablets but battle for No.3 spot will be fought between HP, Microsoft, Nokia and RIM.

With my music spread amongst two computers and limited available storage capacity of my mobile devices, I decided to look for alternatives and here is what I found when I evaluated the following:

• Syncing my Music to the SD card/internal memory of the phone
• Radios like Pandora
• Monthly Music services like MOG and Spotify
• Streaming my own music using services like Jam11

Syncing my Music to the SD card/internal memory of the phone

Apple offers an ability to sync iPhone and iPad with iTunes  and many third party alternatives exist on Android and Blackberry phones to sync your library on iTunes as well. If your music library is any larger than 5GB (1,000 songs), Syncing is a bad alternative as there is never enough space left on these devices after leaving room for apps, pictures, videos and other data.  Yes you can pay $99 extra for each 8GB of storage on Apple’s iPod and iPhone or buy a larger SD card but it is unlikely that you can sync all of your music library on it for ever.

Radios like Pandora & Slacker

Internet Radios like Pandora and Slacker are great alternatives and offer a great selection. It is a great way to discover new music. However, if you are in a mood to listen to your Beatles album, Pandora will offer one of the songs from Beatles and then offer you similar songs due to Radio licensing restrictions. There are other Internet radios like SHOUTcast wherein I found a large selection of music, news and talkshows.

Monthly Music Services

There are many alternatives like MOG, Spotify and Rhapsody and cost between $5 to $10/month. The selection varies but I couldn’t find majority of the music that I like in most of these services. Also, I do have problem in paying to listen to the music I already own and hence these choices are not for me.

Streaming my Own Music using services like Jam11

With ubiquitous 3G/Wifi data connectivity, it is now easy to stream all of your music off your computer. Yes it needs your computer to be on but with streaming services like Jam11, I can now listen to my music anywhere from any phone. I can search for my music on my Android or Blackberry phone and listen instantly and make sure I don’t buy yet another song I already own. You can download Jam11 from Android Market or Blackberry App World and give it a try.

Conclusion

In conclusion, there is no one solution for everyone. I settled on using Jam11, have some local music on my SD card and listen to SHOUTcast radios on my Jam11 application. Let me know if you are still not syncing the old fashioned way and buying more iPods.

Let us first understand few key differences or killer features of iPad before understanding its usage

• Orientation – The mere fact that laptop creates screen as a barrier between two people while iPad allows you to be at the same level as the other person, iPad is a better media consumption device for individual and a co-worker.
• Instant On and Connectivity – Brooke Crothers, in his CNET article about Four Killer Features identifies this as a key one and I fully agree that it changes everything.
• Battery Life – Being able to watch movies throughout the intercontinental flight and still have battery left over is an achievement that makes iPad ideal for media consumption of all kinds.
• Size and Weight – Weighing a mere 1.5 Pounds and the size of a standard notebook, it is much more portable than a laptop but not as tiny as a phone.

iPad is a media consumption device and most of us are consumers of media most of the time with occasional commenting and replies. However, if you are a media creator like a writer, movie creator or database entry person then iPad is a wrong device for you. Once we agree it is a media consumption device, let us compare it with other devices for different media types so that you can make a more informed decision on whether iPad is the best device for you or not. When I hear stories like my 3-year old and my grandfather who have never been comfortable with a laptop are now enjoying the company of iPad, it just confirms my assertion that it is a good media consumption device even for non techies.

In my opinion, Table 1 below is a comparison of how each of the three devices compare for various media consumption functions. A is the best with C being the worst and B in the middle. I will expand on these points in subsequent blogs and look forward to hearing your feedback on these.

Conclusion

iPad is not a media creation device but is a media consumption device. As a media consumption device, it sure beats a laptop or a smartphone. It is not a replacement for either of these devices but an attempt by Apple to create a new category that will soon be imitated by many vendors.

However, iPad needs some major changes like inclusion of Flash (unless Apple can hire Harry Porter to use his wand and have all of the Flash sites converted to HTML5 overnight), new applications written for iPad like multimedia textbooks beyond just PDF version of books and inclusion of camera and facetime like application.

Table 1 – Rating of Media Consumption for Laptop, Smartphone and iPad

So, here are various considerations in making the right decision on selecting your roaming service provider.

• US Mobile Operator’s Roaming Pricing
• Is your handset capable of Roaming?
• Is your handset Carrier Locked?
• Duration of trip
• Voice Roaming
• Data Roaming – Android and iPhone
• Data Roaming – Blackberry

US Mobile Operator’s Roaming Pricing

AT&T, Sprint , T-Mobile and Verizon Wireless all offer international voice roaming and their rates vary from $1 to $2/minute.  Additionally, data roaming charges are in the range of $1-$1.50/MB. AT&T used to offer $69/Month unlimited data roaming for Blackberry but it not available anymore on its web site.

Is your handset capable of Roaming?

Most of handsets sold by AT&T and T-Mobile are capable of roaming on most of the networks in the UK and the rest of Europe. For handsets sold by Sprint and Verizon, only quadband 3G handsets are capable of roaming on the European networks.  Both Sprint and Verizon offer some Blackberry handsets that are quadband but none of the Android handsets on Sprint and Verizon websites are quadband and so unlikely to be suitable for roaming on GSM networks in Europe.

Is your handset Carrier Locked?

Most US mobile operators lock handsets in such a way that these subsidized handsets only work on their network. However, many operators offer unlock codes with AT&T and T-Mobile providing it free after 3 months of service except on iPhone. The good news for iPhone users is the availability of many public domain and paid tools to do carrier unlock which is not the same as jailbreak. In London, we could get this service from any of the  shops selling SIM cards for less than $10.

Duration of trip

If you are going on a business trip for a couple of days and not likely to visit the same country anytime soon, go with the plan offered by your mobile operator as the hassle of going on a pre paid plan is not worth the trouble unless you are going to be on the phone constantly.

Voice Roaming

If you only care about voice roaming then the best thing to do is to buy any local SIM card. Insert it into your unlocked GSM phone and you are in business. There are many voice plans with calls within UK costing over 25cents/min but offering less than 5cents/min calls to any international location including the US. The only downside is that you will have a new number but for the savings offered, it was worth taking the chance.

Data Roaming – Android and iPhone

I found T-Mobile SIM cards offering data services at a very reasonable price and configured automatically on all three phones I tried it on. On the other hand, O2 card didn’t work on my Android or Blackberry and every time I called the O2 operator, more money was taken out of my pre-paid account.The pre-paid T-Mobile SIM offered almost unlimited weekly data plan for less than $7.

Data Roaming – Blackberry

Most operators in the UK don’t support Blackberry on prepaid and if Blackberry/Outlook integrated email is needed, you have no choice but to stick with your US SIM card and pay for data roaming. However, I could get Internet connectivity on Blackberry and was able to access my Gmail and do browsing on it with T-Mobile SIM card.

Conclusion

If you are going to be roaming in the UK for more than couple of days, it is much more economical to use pre paid SIM than to pay large roaming fees to the US operators with only disadvantage being a new number. For Blackberry users, you can get voice and data roaming but not Blackberry messaging connectivity on a pre-paid SIM. For Android and iPhone users, pre paid SIM is the best economical option and gives you full connectivity at a very reasonable price.

Some Misconceptions on 3G

In reading various articles in Indian magazines, I was surprised at the misunderstanding amongst local pundits and the solutions proposed. The proposed solutions varied from offering 3G video conferencing, TV services (none of the video services make sense unless LTE type bandwidths are available and even then there is no proof of video conferencing making money for service providers anywhere in the world), location services (one doesn’t need 3G to have location services) and for operators to find a killer service. (operators are not known to find killer services)

Obvious Path though not Right

The obvious temptation for mobile operators will be to offer new data services and like the current VAS (value added services), keep a very large percentage of service revenue for themselves. I am afraid this will not work. Look at the examples of US and other western countries where data services  took off only after Apple made it easy for software developers to come up with new applications and keep 70% of the revenue generated.

Some Ideas

This is what I think Indian Operators should do to recover their investments and increase profitability. What do you think?

• Don’t deploy yesterday’s technology and instead take a leap to LTE technologies so that it can actually become a contender to replace DSL for broadband
• Become the best pipe and open the platform for hardware and software developers to innovate on
• Imagine new low cost smart phones, Netbooks, iPads, eReaders, laptops and other new devices all with built-in 3G technologies requiring monthly services
• Imagine new applications customized for Indian markets all requiring data connections where a developer has an incentive to innovate – a large market, good % revenue share with operators
• Imagine every student (India has lots of them and spends a lot on education) carrying a 3G enabled device all the time consuming data services everywhere

Conclusion

Just as mobile phone brought the first phone into majority of Indian homes, 3G has the potential to bring mobile broadband and hence Internet into every home provided mobile operators are not short sighted and provide the best data pipe and leave others to innovate to increase value of their data pipes and hence revenue and profitability.